A year ago, the Cincinnati Reds likely didn’t anticipate needing to rely on Julian Aguiar for 31.2 big league innings during the 2024 regular season. They aimed to strengthen their rotation through free agency, ultimately signing veterans Nick Martinez and Frankie Montas to support a young core that included Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, and Graham Ashcraft.
Brandon Williamson was also part of the mix, along with Connor Phillips and Carson Spiers. Lyon Richardson appeared healthy, and there was optimism that Rhett Lowder might contribute as well. Given this depth, it seemed clear the Reds weren’t counting on Aguiar for 2024.
However, circumstances changed dramatically. Aguiar made seven starts down the stretch as injuries, trades, and struggles impacted the depth chart. This situation illustrates the unpredictability of pitching depth—much like gathering firewood, it’s never quite enough.
With Montas now gone, Martinez likely opting for free agency, Williamson sidelined by a torn UCL, and Lodolo, Abbott, and Ashcraft each dealing with injuries that placed them on the 60-day IL at the season’s end, the Reds’ once-strong pitching depth is now in jeopardy. The recent news that Aguiar required Tommy John surgery adds to the team’s woes.
MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reported that Aguiar underwent the procedure, performed by Dr. Keith Meister. The timing of Aguiar’s and Williamson’s surgeries means both are expected to miss the entirety of the 2025 season, with only a slim chance of being available if the Reds reach the World Series. Recovering from Tommy John surgery typically takes at least a year.
Reds RHP Julian Aguiar had Tommy John surgery performed yesterday by Dr. Keith Meister.
(I mean it this time).
— Mark Sheldon (@m_sheldon) October 12, 2024
Under ideal circumstances, the Reds could field a decent rotation in 2025 with their current roster, provided everyone is healthy and recovers well. However, perfect health is rare in modern baseball, making it increasingly evident that the offseason must address not only the team’s poor offense and defense but also its starting rotation. They will need pitchers who can eat innings and provide depth when injuries inevitably arise.
Aguiar had filled that role effectively in 2024, and now the Reds must find someone equally capable—or even better—heading into 2025.
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