TRADE UPDATE: Three Cardinals Promising Stars Most Likely To Be Traded

With the World Series over, the excitement of baseball’s offseason is officially underway. Following the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Game 5 comeback win to clinch the championship, the St. Louis Cardinals are preparing to make significant decisions. Team options are due Monday, and the Cardinals are set to decline options on Lance Lynn and Keynan Middleton, while still weighing their choice on Kyle Gibson.

Next week’s general managers’ meetings in San Antonio will kickstart trade negotiations and offseason planning. The Cardinals, openly aiming to reduce payroll, are expected to explore trade options involving veteran players Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and Sonny Gray—all of whom have some control over their trade destinations. Given that each has recently been available to other teams, the Cardinals have some groundwork to assess potential trade markets and shape their offseason strategy.

Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado’s contract carries a hefty $74 million commitment over the next three years, though the Colorado Rockies are covering $10 million of that amount. While Arenado’s offensive production dipped significantly in 2024, he bounced back with an elite defensive performance, showing his potential to add value in a strong, winning environment with established clubhouse leaders. Like Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, Arenado holds a no-trade clause, placing him at the center of the Cardinals’ offseason trade discussions. When he first arrived in St. Louis before the 2021 season, Arenado facilitated the trade with a clear preference for the Cardinals, and a similar scenario could limit the return the Cardinals might receive if he controls his next destination.

 

Nolan Arenado the focus of Dodgers and Cardinals trade talks - Los Angeles  Times

 

The west coast holds a strong draw for Arenado, and the Dodgers have previously shown interest in him, particularly during their struggles in 2023. While Shohei Ohtani’s addition as designated hitter complicates their roster, Max Muncy’s contract only runs one more season beyond 2024, potentially opening a future spot. Another potential fit is the Philadelphia Phillies, who could be ready for an upgrade at third base. With frustrations around Alec Bohm and Arenado’s connections to several Phillies stars from the World Baseball Classic, Philadelphia’s aggressive front office, led by Dave Dombrowski, could make a push for him.

Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras’s commitment to catching is a significant factor as he considers his future in baseball. Over his two seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, his defensive skills have notably improved, and he was on track for his best offensive season in 2024 before suffering two unfortunate broken bones. As a capable middle-of-the-order hitter who can handle the demanding role of a catcher, Contreras will attract interest if he decides to explore options.

The Houston Astros previously pursued him during the 2022 trade deadline, and they showed interest again in free agency afterward, influenced by then-manager Dusty Baker. While Yainer Díaz produced similar offensive numbers to Contreras in 2024, he comes with a much lower financial commitment, being on a league minimum deal compared to Contreras’s guaranteed $59.5 million over the next three years.

 

Willson Contreras hits pair of 2-run homers in Cardinals' 8-5 victory over  Royals | AP News

 

If teams view Contreras as a potential designated hitter or first baseman, his market could expand further, leading to more opportunities. While his hitting prowess and competitive drive are undeniable, determining his possible landing spots will be one of the most fascinating storylines in the early weeks of the offseason.

Sonny Gray

While fishing on former teammate Kyle Farmer’s land in Georgia, Sonny Gray was ready to sign with another team last winter when he received a call from John Mozeliak. Gray’s contract is a complex one, worth $65 million guaranteed (minus some deferments) over the next two years, making it potentially the hardest to trade among the Cardinals’ veterans. At nearly 35 years old, Gray finished the season on the injured list due to elbow tendonitis, though both he and the Cardinals have downplayed the severity of the issue, indicating he is on a normal offseason regimen.

 

Sonny Gray's masterful outing | 04/21/2024 | MLB.com

 

In 2024, Gray achieved the second-best strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio of his career and recorded his best walks-per-nine-innings figure, showcasing his potential as a top-end starter for any team acquiring him. However, he prioritized signing with a team near his Nashville home last offseason, with the Cincinnati Reds being the team he was reportedly close to signing with. The Reds may be reluctant to trade long-term assets within the division, especially considering the potential impact Gray could have on them.

The Atlanta Braves appear to be a strong fit for Gray, especially with Max Fried likely departing via free agency. However, it’s unclear if they would be interested in adding an outside pitcher when they have a wealth of homegrown talent already in their rotation.

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