At the 2019 trade deadline, St. Louis Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak famously told KMOX’s Tom Ackerman that Dylan Carlson, the team’s top prospect at the time, would only be traded if someone was willing to “pry him through my dead hands.” Fast forward to now, and Carlson’s journey has taken a dramatic turn.
Non-tendered by the Tampa Bay Rays earlier this offseason, Carlson, now 26, is the youngest free agent with at least 50 MLB plate appearances on the market. While he’s likely to find a new team before the offseason concludes, his current situation is a stark contrast to his once-lofty comparisons to players like Albert Pujols and Oscar Taveras.
Carlson showed early promise at the major league level, finishing third in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021 with a solid .266/.343/.437 slash line and a 2.4 fWAR over 149 games. In 2022, after the Cardinals traded Harrison Bader, Carlson was entrusted with the center field job but struggled after a wrist injury, failing to replicate his early success.
The downward trend continued in 2023 when Carlson managed only 76 games, hitting well below league average and contributing 0 fWAR. The struggles persisted into 2024, despite a strong Spring Training. A collision with Jordan Walker late in camp led to an injury, and when Carlson returned, his performance plummeted, finishing the year with a 51 wRC+ and -0.8 fWAR.
Carlson’s tenure with the Cardinals ended at the trade deadline when he was dealt to the Rays for reliever Shawn Armstrong. His time with the Cardinals, once brimming with potential, ended as a disappointment.
This offseason represents a chance for Carlson to reset his career. If he can find a team willing to invest in his talent and help him rediscover his form, there’s hope he can turn things around and fulfill some of the promise he once showed.
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