As the NHL salary cap takes a significant jump for the 2025-26 season, the Colorado Avalanche face a pressing financial decision regarding star forward Mikko Rantanen. The 27-year-old winger, who is set to hit unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2025, will command a massive contract, and the rising cap could reshape both his value and the Avalanche’s ability to retain him.
Salary Cap Surge Alters Market Dynamics
The NHL’s salary cap is expected to increase to approximately $92 million for the 2025-26 season, a substantial rise from the $88 million cap set for 2024-25. This long-awaited increase follows years of stagnation due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s financial impact on the league. The additional financial flexibility benefits teams looking to spend aggressively on star talent—but it also means Rantanen’s price tag is likely to soar.
Rantanen, who will be entering his age-29 season when his next contract begins, is coming off a six-year, $55.5 million deal ($9.25 million AAV) signed in 2019. With back-to-back 100-point campaigns and a reputation as one of the NHL’s most dominant power forwards, he is poised to command a contract well north of $11 million annually, potentially rivaling the deals of fellow elite wingers like Artemi Panarin ($11.642 million AAV) and David Pastrňák ($11.25 million AAV).
Avalanche’s Financial Puzzle
Colorado’s front office, led by GM Chris MacFarland, faces a delicate balancing act. The team is built around Nathan MacKinnon, who is entering the second year of his eight-year, $100.8 million contract ($12.6 million AAV), and Cale Makar, who is signed through 2027 at $9 million annually. Additionally, key contributors like Devon Toews ($7.25 million AAV) and Valeri Nichushkin ($6.125 million AAV) remain on long-term deals.
The challenge lies in structuring Rantanen’s extension without compromising roster depth. With Gabriel Landeskog’s status uncertain due to lingering knee injuries, the team may need to prepare for multiple contingencies. If Landeskog is unable to return, his $7 million cap hit could provide some relief via long-term injured reserve (LTIR), but relying on that flexibility is far from ideal.
Could Rantanen Hit the Open Market?
Despite his importance to the Avalanche, there remains a possibility that Rantanen could explore free agency. If negotiations stall or if Colorado determines that committing another double-digit AAV contract would limit roster construction, trade speculation could intensify leading up to the 2025 trade deadline.
Rantanen’s value as a perennial 40-goal scorer with elite playmaking ability would make him one of the most coveted free agents in recent history. Teams with cap space, such as the Detroit Red Wings, Nashville Predators, or even the rising Buffalo Sabres, could aggressively pursue him if he becomes available.
A Crucial Year Ahead
The 2024-25 season will be pivotal for both Rantanen and the Avalanche. If he maintains his elite production, he will strengthen his case for a contract in the $11-12 million range. For Colorado, the challenge will be determining whether they can afford to keep their core intact or if difficult decisions must be made to sustain long-term competitiveness.
One thing is certain—Mikko Rantanen is about to enter the most financially consequential season of his career, and the new salary cap landscape ensures that the stakes are higher than ever.
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