Back in 2021, when his trade to the St. Louis Cardinals became official, Nolan Arenado expressed his excitement, saying, “Once I heard that it was done, I was thrilled.”
On February 1, 2021, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak orchestrated a blockbuster deal to acquire the All-Star third baseman and multiple-time Gold Glove winner in a six-player trade. In return, the Colorado Rockies received left-hander Austin Gomber, infielders Elehuris Montero and Mateo Gil, and right-handers Tony Locey and Jake Sommers. Of that group, only Gomber and Montero have made notable contributions in the majors. Meanwhile, Arenado has been a major asset for St. Louis over the past four seasons.
Not only did the Cardinals get a star player, but they also secured $51 million from Colorado to offset Arenado’s hefty contract, making the trade even more lopsided in their favor.
Since joining St. Louis, Arenado has compiled 16.7 bWAR, hit 64 home runs, and posted a 119 OPS+. He has earned three All-Star selections, two Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger, and finished third in NL MVP voting in 2022—a season in which he led the league in bWAR.
Following the trade, his contract was restructured, adding an extra year through 2027 and including opt-outs after the 2021 and 2022 seasons, along with a full no-trade clause. Arenado ultimately chose to remain with the Cardinals, and he is now under contract for three more years with $74 million remaining. However, Colorado is still contributing $10 million over the next two seasons.
Arenado and the Cardinals always seemed like a natural fit, though his massive contract initially appeared to be an obstacle in trade talks. Despite this, both teams managed to reach an agreement, sending the star third baseman a few states east to St. Louis.
The timing of the trade was unusual, occurring late in the offseason due to the complexities of Arenado’s contract, which prolonged negotiations.
Four years later, Arenado finds himself in a similar situation. He still holds a no-trade clause, he wants to play for a contender, and the Cardinals are actively trying to move him for the best return they can get.
This offseason has revolved around Arenado’s future in St. Louis. During the team’s Winter Warm-Up event, John Mozeliak emphasized that trading Arenado remains his top priority as the offseason winds down.
However, Arenado’s trade value has diminished significantly since 2021. He is coming off his worst offensive season since his rookie year (excluding the shortened 2020 season), his defensive performance has declined, and his power numbers have dipped below replacement level. Simply put, he is no longer the same elite player he once was.
As time passes, the likelihood of Arenado remaining with the Cardinals in 2025 increases. Unless Mozeliak can find a willing trade partner, next season’s Cardinals roster could look very similar to last year’s underwhelming squad.
In 2021, St. Louis acquired Arenado in the late stages of the offseason. Now, the team may attempt to do the opposite—moving him before players report to Spring Training next month.
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