The Atlanta Braves have performed at their peak this season when they’ve been underestimated.
Tuesday night was tough—there’s no other way to put it. The Atlanta Braves effectively lost the game the moment Brian Snitker announced that AJ Smith-Shawver would start Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres. Unfortunately, Smith-Shawver wasn’t ready for the big stage and was overwhelmed, lasting only 1.1 innings before being replaced by Aaron Bummer, who likely should have started in the first place.
The Braves were already at a disadvantage heading into Game 1 against San Diego. They had just played a doubleheader on Monday against their division rivals, the New York Mets, to sort out playoff positioning. Theoretically, both teams forfeiting a game could have led to the same result: Atlanta going to San Diego and New York heading to Milwaukee. But what about the fans?
As a fan of the team, this 2024 Braves squad has been the least enjoyable halfway-decent team to follow and write about in my adult life. While I appreciate their grit—especially compared to the disastrous 2014 team—this year’s Braves are flawed and have the lowest postseason ceiling of any team competing. Injuries have hit them hard, though I respect the players’ determination.
With that said, here are three things I believe the Braves must do to stand a chance in Game 2.
3. Orlando Arcia needs to be more than a walking out hitting ninth
One of the most frustrating aspects of this season has been the expected regression of Orlando Arcia. Last year, he played so well that he made his first NL All-Star appearance. Now, with his offense declining, his performance at shortstop has been inconsistent at times. While defense is his strong suit, he needs to offer more than just being a weak link batting ninth. I think providing him with better protection in the lineup could help.
Michael Harris II has been hitting well as the leadoff batter, which should, in theory, help Arcia get better pitches to hit in the ninth spot. However, I’m not sure who could step up and bat eighth to be the spark plug ahead of Arcia. The Braves can’t afford to be unproductive at the bottom of the order. If the bottom third has more bite, it could relieve some pressure on Arcia at the plate.
When every out matters, it’s frustrating to watch a batter come up who isn’t expected to contribute much offensively. Yes, Arcia may have the occasional big hit, but the Braves can’t afford a shortstop who performs like Mario Mendoza at the plate. We have to work with what we have, but Arcia has been a liability offensively for most of the season, and that’s just the reality.
I’m not sure what Snitker can do to provide him more protection, but San Diego is likely to take advantage of this weakness.
2. Consider removing Jorge Soler from the lineup sooner than later
The trade deadline addition of 2021 World Series MVP Jorge Soler has been a mixed bag for the Braves. While I appreciate his willingness to play right field after primarily serving as the designated hitter for the San Francisco Giants before the trade, his defensive shortcomings are clear. What gives Braves fans hope is his potential with the bat, though he’s been inconsistent at the plate.
Typically, about a third of the way through the game, the Braves will substitute Soler with someone like Eli White to strengthen their defense in right field. Unfortunately, the Jarred Kelenic acquisition hasn’t paid off when the Braves needed it most, so Soler has been relied on to alleviate some of those offensive concerns. But you can’t expect to go far in the postseason with mediocre outfield performance.
What I’m suggesting is if Soler doesn’t deliver offensively early on, it might be wise to pivot to someone like White for defense, especially if the game is still within reach. I have more faith in San Diego’s bats to come through with clutch hits in this series, and preventing one extra baserunner could be the difference between advancing or being eliminated on October 3.
This decision-making requires a certain feel for the game, something I believe Snitker has been losing touch with lately in his choices.
1. Pitch Max Fried until his arm falls off in an effort to save the bullpen
Now that Max Fried has had his full five days of rest, especially after the Braves desperately needed him, he has to go out there and dominate. This could very well be his final game in a Braves uniform, as he’s set to cash in during free agency. Knowing how general manager Alex Anthopoulos operates, I’m fully expecting to see Fried pitching for Los Angeles next season.
The best thing the Braves can do is to keep the game out of Snitker’s hands. He has no feel for managing pitching changes from the bullpen. While Aaron Bummer was great, starting Smith-Shawver in Game 1 was probably the dumbest move I’ve ever seen Snitker make, and that’s saying something. We need to set Fried up for success, aiming for him to go at least eight innings.
The silver lining for the Braves is that the Padres seem to struggle against left-handed pitching. On the flip side, the Braves couldn’t hit Michael King’s sweeper last night even if it was on a batting tee. In any case, the only chance Atlanta has to avoid elimination is if Fried gives it everything he’s got, just like he did in his regular-season finale.
It’s fitting that Fried will pitch in Petco Park, a pitcher’s paradise, and against the team that originally drafted him. Let’s go, Braves!
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