The 2024 Atlanta Braves fell short of their high expectations after being eliminated in the Wild Card Series by the San Diego Padres. While injuries were a significant factor, nearly every player, except Chris Sale and Marcell Ozuna, underperformed, with much of the bullpen being the only exception.
Given the outcome of this season, Alex Anthopoulos is under considerable pressure to turn things around. Historically, he tends to focus on the trade market for major moves rather than free agency (sorry, Max Fried).
Although the Braves might lose Fried, it wouldn’t be surprising if Anthopoulos decided to replace him in a major trade. Additionally, it wouldn’t be unexpected for him to pursue another impactful bat. If the Braves engage in one or two significant trades, these three prospects could end up in a different organization by the time Spring Training begins.
3) Drake Baldwin feels like obvious trade bait
Although the Braves may not have performed to their potential this season, they arguably boast the best catching duo in the majors. When healthy, Sean Murphy is considered one of the top catchers in baseball, as Braves fans witnessed in 2023. Despite a disappointing 2024 season marked by significant injury setbacks, a healthy offseason could help Murphy regain his elite status. Plus, he’s secured long-term on an extension.
Travis d’Arnaud completes this catching duo. While he can be frustratingly inconsistent at times offensively, he remains a solid above-average hitter behind the plate. He has a club option worth $8 million, which is likely to be exercised, keeping him in Atlanta for the 2025 season.
With Murphy and d’Arnaud set for at least next season, the focus shifts to Drake Baldwin, their No. 5 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. As Anthopoulos points out, Baldwin is just a phone call away, but the question arises: where will he fit in, and when? Unless injuries occur, the Braves are well-equipped behind the plate for 2025. Keeping Baldwin in Triple-A seems counterproductive, especially if they could sell high on him.
Given Murphy’s long-term commitment, Baldwin doesn’t have a future as a catcher in Atlanta. While the Braves might consider moving him to another position or using him as a designated hitter, neither option appears wise. Instead, the Braves would be better off trading Baldwin now while he still holds significant value.
2) Does Nacho Alvarez Jr. have a future in Atlanta?
The numerous injuries the Braves experienced in their infield this season provided Nacho Alvarez Jr., their No. 4 prospect per MLB Pipeline, with an opportunity to prove himself at the MLB level. Unfortunately, he did not succeed.
Alvarez participated in just eight games, accumulating 32 plate appearances, where he managed only three hits (all singles) in 30 at-bats, striking out 10 times. Overall, he appeared significantly overmatched in the majors.
While the sample size is small, and it’s worth noting that if the Braves had given Spencer Schwellenbach a few more starts, they might not have made the postseason at all, one has to question Alvarez’s future with the team, regardless of his slow start.
In his brief MLB time, Alvarez played second base. However, Ozzie Albies, the team’s second baseman, is under contract through 2027 on one of the league’s best deals. While Alvarez has primarily played shortstop in the minors, the Braves might not be able to count on him to perform well enough offensively at the MLB level for that position. If he can’t, they already have a strong defender in Orlando Arcia on a cost-effective contract. Alvarez has also spent some time at third base, but Austin Riley isn’t going anywhere.
This situation mirrors that of Vaughn Grissom. The Braves valued Grissom’s bat but couldn’t find a regular position for him, leading to his trade for Chris Sale while he still had value. Instead of keeping Alvarez stuck in the minors, the Braves should consider trading him while his value is still high, potentially seeking another impactful player like Chris Sale.
1) The Braves should look to trade AJ Smith-Shawver in a blockbuster
The Braves organization has a strong track record of developing pitching talent, as demonstrated by Spencer Schwellenbach this season. While it would be challenging to part with AJ Smith-Shawver, their No. 2 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, the question arises: where does he fit into the team’s plans?
With Chris Sale, Schwellenbach, and Reynaldo Lopez all secured in the rotation for 2024, and even if the Braves decide not to re-sign Max Fried, they are likely to acquire a replacement (possibly involving Smith-Shawver in a trade). There’s also the possibility of a reunion with Charlie Morton. Additionally, Hurston Waldrep remains in the minors, further complicating Smith-Shawver’s situation.
After this season, Smith-Shawver will have only one option left, meaning the Braves have limited flexibility to send him down to the minors without risking him going on waivers. He has yet to prove himself at the MLB level and won’t be guaranteed a rotation spot heading into Spring Training. Given these circumstances, why not consider selling high now?
If the Braves were to explore trading a pitching prospect of Smith-Shawver’s caliber, they could potentially secure a substantial return. With the team in a win-now mode and Smith-Shawver being relatively unproven with limited minor league options, this seems like an opportune time to capitalize on his value.
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