Each December, Major League Baseball conducts the Rule 5 Draft with straightforward eligibility rules.
Players signed at 18 or younger must be added to their team’s 40-man roster within five seasons, while those signed at 19 or older need protection within four seasons. Unprotected players are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. If selected, they must join their new team’s 26-man roster, or their rights return to their original team.
MLB teams utilize the Rule 5 Draft for various reasons; some players, like Ryan Pressly, Anthony Santander, and Garrett Whitlock, have gone on to become All-Stars. Last year, the St. Louis Cardinals selected Ryan Fernandez from the Boston Red Sox, and he posted a 3.51 ERA over 66.2 innings for St. Louis this season.
To protect eligible players, teams must add them to the 40-man roster before the December draft. At the close of the 2024 season, the Cardinals had 41 players on their 40-man roster, with Keynan Middleton and Drew Rom on the 60-day Injured List, leaving 39 active players. With Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, and Andrew Kittredge expected to depart in free agency, and options declined on Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Keynan Middleton, the roster could open up even further.
If the Cardinals were to trade veterans like Ryan Helsley, Nolan Arenado, Erick Fedde, Steven Matz, or Miles Mikolas, and potentially remove others like Ryan Loutos, Jose Fermin, Chris Roycroft, and Kyle Leahy, it could create up to 10 available roster spots, though six seems more likely. Among the 48 Rule 5 eligible players in their organization, several will likely be released, while others may change teams in the draft’s minor league portion.
Still, there are intriguing candidates who might be added to the Cardinals’ 40-man roster for protection this winter.
These 4 Rule 5 eligible players should be added to the Cardinals’ 40-man roster to protect them this year.
OF Matt Koperniak
Matt Koperniak is one of the oldest players in the Cardinals’ minor league system. The 26-year-old outfielder joined the team as an undrafted free agent in 2020 after playing at Trinity College and has now spent four seasons in their farm system.
In 2023, he performed well at Double-A Springfield, posting a .320/.386/.453 slash line. He improved even further with the Memphis Redbirds in 2024, finishing the season with a .309/.370/.512 line, 20 home runs, and 73 RBIs, while also showcasing strong defense across all outfield positions.
Koperniak has also gained experience on the international stage, representing Great Britain in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and he went 8-for-26 with five RBIs in spring training with the Cardinals this year.
Despite his impressive performance, promoting Koperniak during the season was challenging due to competition from outfielders like Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Victor Scott II, Michael Siani, and Jordan Walker. Still, the Cardinals should consider adding him to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from being claimed by other teams.
A similar situation could arise in 2025, with Nootbaar, Burleson, Walker, Siani, and Scott II all contending for outfield roles, along with Donovan. This would leave Koperniak blocked by six major-league-tested players, but adding him to the roster would provide valuable depth in case of injuries.
Koperniak has consistently hit well at every minor league level. As a left-handed hitter with recent power development and the ability to play strong defense in multiple outfield spots, he’s a unique asset. Letting him go this offseason could end up being a decision the Cardinals regret in the future.
RHP Tekoah Roby
Tekoah Roby might not have fully earned a spot on the 40-man roster due to his injury history, but his talent and pedigree make him a strong candidate. Once ranked as a top-100 prospect in all of baseball, Roby still possesses considerable potential.
Since joining the Cardinals at the trade deadline last year, Roby has only logged 50.1 innings, with mixed results in both the minors and the 2023 Arizona Fall League. He has posted a 5.75 ERA in the minors with 58 strikeouts, though he’s recently struggled with home runs. However, his final three starts with Palm Beach to end the 2024 season showed some improvement as he worked his way back from rehab.
Roby’s appeal lies in his age—he recently turned 23—and his former standing as a top-100 prospect, ranking as high as #75 with *Baseball America* for 2024 and #88 with *MLB Pipeline* in 2023.
His pitch arsenal includes a fastball that occasionally reaches 99 mph with solid command, a classic 12-to-6 curveball, a newly added slider that has been somewhat vulnerable to hits, and a changeup in need of refinement. While Roby has faced control issues recently, he once maintained a walk rate below 7%.
If Roby can stay healthy and return to his previous form with over 10 strikeouts per nine innings, he could become a valuable pitcher for the Cardinals. Letting go of a former top-100 prospect at this stage would be a mistake. Together with prospects Quinn Mathews and Tink Hence, Roby provides the Cardinals with valuable pitching depth in the minors.
RHP Tink Hence
Tink Hence has faced a similar challenge to Tekoah Roby, as injuries have limited his ability to fully develop into the pitcher he was projected to become. However, unlike Roby, Hence has consistently shown effectiveness when he’s healthy. Despite entering his fifth professional season, he has yet to throw more than 79.2 innings in a single year.
In 2024, Hence made an impressive start, spending the entire season with Double-A Springfield. He recorded a strong strikeout rate of 12.31 per nine innings (34.1%) while limiting walks to just 8.1% of batters faced. Unfortunately, a midseason hamstring injury sidelined him for about a month. Although he finished the season with Springfield, he was restricted to shorter outings upon his return, unable to exceed four innings per game out of caution for his leg. He ended the year with a 2.71 ERA and 109 strikeouts over 79.2 innings.
Ranked as the organization’s #2 prospect, Hence is one of the top right-handed pitching prospects in baseball, but recurring injuries have prevented him from reaching his full potential. The Cardinals are almost certain to add him to the 40-man roster this offseason. If he remains healthy, there’s a good chance he could debut in 2025, especially given the organization’s emphasis on developing young talent for the upcoming season. His addition to the roster seems inevitable; now, the main question is when he’ll be ready for major-league action.
RHP Matt Svanson
The Cardinals acquired pitcher Matt Svanson in their 2023 trade with the Toronto Blue Jays for Paul DeJong, and he’s been used exclusively as a reliever since joining their organization.
Svanson found his rhythm in 2024, finishing with a 2.69 ERA over 53 games and 63.2 innings, while also leading Double-A with 27 saves. He established himself as a reliable bullpen option, especially as a back-end reliever, a role teams consistently seek to solidify.
However, some concerning underlying stats may weaken his case for a roster spot. Svanson struck out only 8.3 batters per nine innings and posted a 1.461 WHIP, indicating some struggles with walks and hits; he walked 3.5 batters per nine innings. Generally, a lower strikeout rate combined with frequent free passes can spell trouble for a reliever’s consistency.
The Cardinals sent Svanson to the Arizona Fall League, where he has shown an improved strikeout ability with 15 strikeouts in just 7.2 innings across seven games, though he carries a 5.87 ERA in this span. He’s walked only two batters but allowed nine hits, which shows a mix of promising control improvement and some contact issues. If the organization aimed to see improvement in his strikeouts, his Fall League performance has provided that, albeit in limited action.
With tight competition for 40-man roster spots, Svanson may end up without a spot in 2024, potentially making him eligible for selection by another team during the Rule 5 Draft. While the Cardinals risk losing a developing talent, they may prefer to reserve roster spots for proven major-league relievers this offseason.
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