Reports suggest that St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado might consider waiving his no-trade clause this offseason, sparking considerable interest across the league.
The Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, and several other teams could be ideal fits for the eight-time All-Star. Despite not posting exceptional stats over the past two seasons, Arenado remains a solid Gold Glove contender with at least league-average offense.
Two primary factors complicate a potential trade for Arenado: his no-trade clause, which he may waive for the right fit, and the $74 million he’s owed over the next three years. The Colorado Rockies will contribute $5 million in both 2025 and 2026, along with some deferred payments included in his contract.
Apart from the Phillies and Dodgers, the Houston Astros could also benefit greatly from adding Arenado.
Since 2016, Alex Bregman has anchored third base for the Astros, helping them win two championships and earning both Gold Glove and Silver Slugger honors. Although Bregman may not match Arenado’s defensive prowess, he has been among the top third basemen in recent years.
Bregman’s five-year, $100 million contract has ended, and he now enters free agency as one of the top players on the market. If the Astros opt not to re-sign him, their third-base spot will be vacant.
Defensively, Arenado would likely surpass Bregman, who has recorded 22 outs above average in nine seasons with Houston. However, Arenado might not be as strong offensively as Bregman, especially based on recent years.
If the Cardinals trade Arenado, they may need to send some money, but the Astros could absorb a contract similar to the $20 million annual salary they previously paid Bregman.
Houston’s farm system is thin, with only one prospect, outfielder Jacob Melton, on MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list. While the Cardinals may inquire about infield prospect Brice Matthews or other top-10 Astros prospects, the Astros’ limited system might lead the Cardinals to focus on Houston’s starting pitchers instead.
The Astros’ rotation in 2025 is expected to feature Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, Luis Garcia, J.P. France, and Lance McCullers Jr., with Cristian Javier possibly returning after Tommy John surgery.
One potential trade target for the Cardinals could be Luis Garcia, who is arbitration-eligible for two more years and recovering from Tommy John surgery. If the Astros decide not to rely on Garcia’s post-surgery performance, the Cardinals could consider revitalizing his career.
Cristian Javier, currently recovering from an injury, is under contract for $54 million over the next three years, which aligns closely with Arenado’s remaining salary. A trade for Javier might not require additional players due to his injury uncertainty, though the Cardinals may need to include a prospect in a deal.
Should the Astros decide against re-signing Alex Bregman, acquiring Arenado could be an excellent alternative.
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