Before this season, Sam Darnold’s most memorable moment in the NFL was his infamous comment about “seeing ghosts.”
Darnold joined the long list of quarterbacks who flamed out after being drafted early by the New York Jets. After leaving Florham Park, he served as a backup and temporary starter with the Panthers and 49ers before landing in Minnesota. Now, he’s the driving force behind one of the NFL’s hottest teams. While injuries and setbacks are slowing the Lions, the Vikings are making a strong push for the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Minnesota’s success might seem easy to credit to others—Brian Flores’s creative defense, Justin Jefferson’s dominance, a solid offensive line, or Kevin O’Connell’s offensive system. But the truth is that Darnold has performed like a top-10 quarterback this season. Despite his breakout campaign, his future with the Vikings remains uncertain.
Brought in as a stopgap quarterback, Darnold signed a one-year, $10 million deal with Minnesota, intended to bridge the gap to rookie JJ McCarthy, whom the Vikings drafted 10th overall. However, McCarthy’s preseason injury gave Darnold an opportunity to lead the team, and he’s delivered at an historic pace. Through 15 weeks, Darnold is only the third quarterback in NFL history to surpass 3,500 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and a 100+ passer rating in his first 14 games with a team.
The potential for greatness had always been visible, hidden beneath miscues during his time with the Jets, Panthers, and 49ers. Darnold’s strong arm and ability to distribute the ball across the field hinted at what he could achieve. But few could have predicted this—a franchise-caliber quarterback lifting those around him.
Darnold’s individual growth can be easy to overlook, given his surroundings: an elite offensive system, a loaded receiving corps, a physical running game, and a dependable tight end. Early in the season, Minnesota’s scheme and elite tackle play helped him thrive. Recently, though, Darnold has faced immense pressure, with the Vikings allowing over 40% pressure rates. Despite these challenges, he’s elevated his game, aside from a few mistakes against the Bears on Monday night.
The 2024 version of Darnold is a far cry from the player he was with the Jets. His accuracy has improved, he’s excelling on the move, and he’s completing tight-window throws at a league-leading rate. Once known for crumbling under pressure, Darnold now remains composed in collapsing pockets. He ranks fifth in the NFL in “plus accuracy” under pressure—trailing only CJ Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow, per Pro Football Focus.
This isn’t just a rebound; it’s a transformation.
Back when he was “seeing ghosts,” defenses exploited Sam Darnold by sending extra pass rushers and muddling up the coverage, causing him to second-guess his decisions. During his turbulent three years with the Jets, Darnold threw 39 interceptions, including 23 against the blitz. He struggled to read the field, often making rushed, panicked throws into tight spaces.
This season, Darnold has still thrown 11 interceptions and made 18 turnover-worthy plays in 14 starts, but the chaos has largely been removed from his game. He’s handled pressure better than almost any quarterback in the league, staying in rhythm and improvising effectively. Against the blitz, Darnold has been exceptional. When facing five or more pass rushers, he’s completed 73% of his passes, averaging 12.2 yards per attempt, with 12 touchdowns and no interceptions. Most of his turnovers this year have come from erratic throws outside the pocket or trusting his receivers to win contested catches.
The narrative of Darnold losing games for his team is now a thing of the past. In tight situations, he thrives. If you’re compiling the traits of a franchise quarterback, Darnold is checking all the boxes.
What we’re seeing now isn’t just a quarterback living up to his potential; it’s someone who has completely reinvented his game.
Darnold’s transformation makes him one of the most intriguing free-agent quarterbacks this offseason. The question is whether the rest of the league will buy into his change from a turnover-prone backup to a reliable starter. Is he another Ryan Fitzpatrick or Geno Smith? That remains to be seen.
Darnold’s success, paired with McCarthy’s injury, presents a dilemma for the Vikings: should they re-sign Darnold to a big contract, or let him walk and begin the transition to McCarthy?
When Darnold enters the market, his starting point for negotiations may be the contract that Baker Mayfield received with the Buccaneers. Like Darnold, Mayfield was a former first-round pick who struggled in his original spot before revitalizing his career. Mayfield earned a three-year, $100 million deal after showing he could be a starting quarterback on a prove-it deal. But Mayfield didn’t join a team that had already drafted a potential future quarterback.
If Darnold’s contract talks start at Mayfield’s deal, the Vikings will face a tough decision. With McCarthy already on their roster, can they afford to commit that much money to Darnold? If not, how many other teams will be interested?
This offseason’s quarterback market is tricky. Many teams with quarterback needs either have established veterans or young quarterbacks they’re committed to. Even teams like Carolina, which appeared to be a potential landing spot for Darnold midway through the season, are sticking with Bryce Young as their long-term starter.
Teams like the Saints, Browns, and Jets, who need quarterbacks, either have veterans in place or are tied up in salary cap issues. Even if the Jets could create cap space for Darnold, it’s unlikely he’d want to return to the team that moved on from him.
This leaves a small group of possible suitors: the Raiders, Giants, and Titans. The Colts might also consider Darnold if they sour on Anthony Richardson. If Matthew Stafford retires, the Rams could be a landing spot for Darnold, though if Stafford returns and the Colts stay committed to Richardson, Darnold’s options could be limited.
These teams may also look to the draft for a future quarterback. Like the Vikings last offseason, they may aim to pair a rookie with a veteran on a cheap contract for guidance. Would Darnold want to be in the same situation again next season? If he leaves Minnesota, it will likely be for a place where he’s the guaranteed starter. If not, returning to Minnesota could make sense, especially since McCarthy is essentially a rookie recovering from an injury. Darnold could maintain his starting role until McCarthy is ready to take over.
Another possibility is that Darnold’s success is tied to Kevin O’Connell’s system. If he continues to perform at a high level, could the Vikings trade McCarthy, even without seeing him play a snap? Or would they follow the Packers’ model and groom McCarthy as the heir to Darnold, much like they did with Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love?
The answers to these questions will unfold in the offseason. But Darnold has proven he’s capable of being a starting quarterback in the right system. His growth this season should encourage other teams to believe his game can translate to different environments.
Whether or not he moves on will depend on how the Vikings finish the season. If Darnold falters in the playoffs, the Vikings might pivot to McCarthy. But there’s also a real chance Darnold and the Vikings could win the Lombardi Trophy. Whether they do or not, what follows will be one of the most compelling quarterback situations in recent NFL history.
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