Speculation around a potential Nolan Arenado trade has died down in recent weeks. The eight-time All-Star exercised his no-trade clause to block a deal that would have sent him to the Astros, leaving the Cardinals struggling to find a suitable trade partner. At last month’s Winter Warm-Up, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak emphasized that resolving the Arenado situation remained a priority, though both he and chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. noted that moving him wasn’t essential for payroll management.
It remains uncertain whether the Cardinals will ultimately trade Arenado. In a recent MLBTR poll, nearly two-thirds of respondents believed he would start the season in St. Louis. However, Mozeliak and his front office are still exploring options, with Jon Morosi of MLB Network reporting that the Cardinals have had “recent communication” with the Red Sox regarding a potential deal.
Despite this, there’s no indication that talks have progressed significantly. In early January, The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported that trade discussions had stalled and suggested Boston might be the only realistic destination for an offseason move. However, Boston’s involvement in the Alex Bregman free-agent market may have complicated matters. The Red Sox have been hesitant to offer more than four years, while Bregman has reportedly received multiple six-year proposals, making it unlikely that he lands in Boston.
If the Red Sox were to pursue Arenado, roster adjustments would be necessary. Their interest in Bregman was based on the idea of moving him to second base, but Arenado’s elite defense at third is his biggest asset. While he has expressed a willingness to switch positions for the right situation, it’s unlikely Boston would consider playing him at second. Instead, Rafael Devers would likely need to move off third, a change he reportedly isn’t eager to make.
Additionally, acquiring Arenado could force the Red Sox to either bench or trade Masataka Yoshida. Boston has yet to trade Triston Casas for starting pitching, despite speculation they might. If Devers were to become the primary designated hitter, Yoshida’s role would be uncertain. With three years left on his contract at $18 million per year—considered above market value—Boston would likely need to absorb a significant portion of his salary to facilitate a trade.
A potential deal between the Red Sox and Cardinals could include Yoshida. Incoming Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom was responsible for signing Yoshida in Boston and previously believed in his offensive potential. While Yoshida has performed well but not exceptionally in MLB, Bloom may still see upside. However, since the Cardinals’ main motivation for moving Arenado appears to be financial, they are unlikely to take on a large portion of Yoshida’s contract.
Arenado is owed $64 million over the next three seasons—$27 million in 2025, $22 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027—with the Rockies covering $5 million annually for the next two years. Additionally, $6 million of St. Louis’ obligations for 2025 and 2026 are deferred. Reports suggested that had Arenado approved a trade to Houston, the Astros were prepared to cover all but $5 million to $15 million of the remaining contract.
Leave a Reply