Tennessee has arguably had one of the most chaotic offseasons in college football, making it tough to predict how the Volunteers will perform in 2025 after their College Football Playoff appearance last year.
Now that quarterback Nico Iamaleava has transferred to UCLA, analyst Josh Pate recently addressed what the Vols’ worst-case scenario might look like on his latest show. He mentioned a conversation with a Tennessee fan who believed the team’s floor was still an 8-4 season.
Pate strongly disagreed, pointing out that Tennessee being considered a regular Playoff contender is a relatively recent development.
“A buddy of mine texted me and said, ‘What if the worst happens and they go 8-4?’ And I thought, ‘The worst? That might’ve happened even with Nico!’” Pate said. “If you think 8-4 is the worst Tennessee can do, you haven’t followed this program closely. Being a yearly Playoff threat is a brand-new idea for them.
“Whether you criticize or praise Josh Heupel, you have to admit he pulled Tennessee out of irrelevance. This was a team stuck in the wilderness for 15 years.”
The stats support Pate’s view: from 2008 to 2021, Tennessee averaged barely over six wins a season, didn’t have a single 10-win year, and hit nine wins only twice.
Had a Tennessee buddy suggest AFTER losing Nico their worst-case is now 8-4
It's time to be honest about some things pic.twitter.com/m7LKOpd7V7
— Josh Pate (@JoshPateCFB) April 23, 2025
Pate also noted how much talent the Vols are replacing from last year’s squad—especially along the offensive line and at skill positions—and how the quarterback situation remains uncertain with Joey Aguilar now in the mix.
“An 8-4 season isn’t rock bottom,” he continued. “Their win total is set at 8.5. A true worst-case scenario would look more like a complete collapse, even missing a bowl game. Just because you made the Playoff last year doesn’t mean your floor rises. It doesn’t work that way. Without Nico, and with all the turnover, they’re still vulnerable.”
Pate emphasized that while he believes in Heupel as a coach, the task ahead is challenging, even if Iamaleava had stayed.
Currently, sportsbooks like BetMGM have Tennessee’s over/under win total set at 8.5. If you’re into sports betting, now’s the time to check out some of the best apps to wager on Tennessee’s upcoming season.
Under Heupel, the Vols have averaged 10 wins over the past three years.
