The Golden State Warriors are not set to open the 2024-25 NBA season as contenders. After finishing as the 10th seed in the Western Conference, suffering a humiliating defeat to the Sacramento Kings in their only postseason game, and losing their second-best scorer and sixth man in the offseason, it’s clear the Warriors have significant ground to cover.
While they made some commendable moves to address these losses, their failure to secure major targets like Lauri Markkanen and Paul George means they haven’t quite regained their contender status.
However, history shows that the Warriors have defied expectations before. They were not seen as contenders at the start of the 2014-15 season, yet they went on to begin their dynasty with a championship. Similarly, they were not considered title hopefuls at the start of the 2021-22 season, but they ended up winning their fourth title by June.
As the upcoming season approaches, the Warriors are not widely regarded as contenders, but they are close enough that with some impressive performances, they could potentially become serious title challengers by the end of the season.
Here are seven key factors that need to align for the Warriors to transform into genuine contenders this season. It’s worth noting that some of these issues might be resolved by a blockbuster trade, though such a move seems unlikely at this point.
An MVP-level season from Steph Curry
No one expects Stephen Curry to retire with more than the two MVP awards he already has, and winning another MVP this year might not be ideal, as it could indicate the Warriors are too dependent on him.
There’s a significant difference between being a top-five player and a top-15 player, and Curry’s position on this spectrum will greatly impact the season. Before the All-Star break last season, Curry was averaging 28.0 points per game and shooting 42.1% from three-point range. After the break, his numbers fell to 23.1 points per game and 37.9% from beyond the arc.
Consequently, Curry’s overall metrics declined from his usual high standards. According to Estimated Plus-Minus, a leading all-encompassing NBA metric, Curry was ranked as the 12th-best player last season. While another season at this level would not be disappointing, the Warriors need Curry to perform as a superstar, not just a star, to have a chance at winning the title.
A motivated, rejuvenated, and in-control Draymond Green
The saying “you’ll only go as far as your best player takes you” is a common NBA belief, but “you’ll only go as far as your second-best player takes you” holds a lot of truth as well. Draymond Green remains firmly the Warriors’ second-best player.
What the Warriors need from Green is a performance level between his past All-World self and his showing from last year. It starts with maintaining control and avoiding unnecessary outbursts, unlike his behavior last season. If Green can stay on the court, stay motivated, and remain in top condition, he can fulfill his roles as the team’s playmaker, emotional leader, and defensive stalwart. The Warriors need him to excel in all three areas.
A leap from Jonathan Kuminga or Brandin Podziemski
Kuminga and Podziemski are expected to play pivotal roles for the Warriors this season. In fact, they might be the two most crucial players after Curry and Green.
Unlike Curry and Green, Kuminga and Podziemski are still on the upward trajectory of their careers. If either player approaches their peak performance, it would be a significant boost for the Warriors.
Kuminga played at an All-Star level for much of last year, while Podziemski demonstrated clear All-Star potential throughout his rookie season. If both of these dynamic young players fulfill their potential as strong role players in the 2024-25 season, the Warriors are likely to perform well. However, if one or both elevate their play to a great level, the Warriors could have a real shot at success.
Defensive improvement from Trayce Jackson-Davis (or…)
TJD made an impressive leap from being a late second-round pick to an exciting starter in just one season. While the Warriors have several lineup options this year, he remains the incumbent starting center and will likely continue in that role unless stated otherwise.
Jackson-Davis’s athleticism, finesse around the rim, basketball IQ, and rim-rolling ability could significantly enhance the Warriors’ offense. However, to maintain this impact for 30 minutes a game, he needs to prove he can defend effectively against top centers in the league.
As a rookie, TJD showed potential defensively but struggled in some matchups, particularly against All-Star bigs.
While Jackson-Davis is a key factor in improving the center position, other options are available. Kevon Looney has proven himself as a defensive anchor and could return to a starting role if he adds more offensive capability, which he has been working on.
Additionally, keep an eye on Quinten Post, this year’s late second-round pick. At just a month younger than TJD, Post is a legitimate seven-footer and could contribute to the center position as well.
A return to form for Andrew Wiggins
There’s no easy way to put it: Wiggins had a disastrous 2023-24 season. His performance dropped sharply from his early years with the Warriors. His stats plummeted from 17.1 points per game to 13.2, assists fell from 2.3 to 1.7, three-point shooting dropped from 39.6% to 35.8%, field goal percentage decreased from 53.0% to 49.8%, and true shooting percentage fell from 56.4% to 54.4%.
The most concerning issues were his decline in defense—going from shutting down Jayson Tatum in the NBA Finals to becoming a poor defender—and his poor fit alongside Kuminga. This led to him ranking 287th in the NBA in Estimated Plus-Minus, one of the worst marks among regularly used players, and resulted in him being removed from the starting lineup for a period.
The Warriors need the old Wiggins back, even if it’s in a reduced role. They need him to be a defensive asset and a reliable scorer. Without his strong contributions, it’s hard to see how they can return to the top without flipping him for a similarly impactful player.
Role players fitting in
The Warriors have significant gaps to address with the departures of Klay Thompson and Chris Paul. However, I’m optimistic about their recent signings: Buddy Hield, De’Anthony Melton, and Kyle Anderson. These veterans seem well-suited to fit into the Warriors’ system.
While the team has seen many additions thrive in their system, they’ve also had their share of disappointments. For instance, I thought Kelly Oubre Jr. would be a great fit, and I was also excited about what Omri Casspi, Jonas Jerebko, and Nick Young could bring.
Ultimately, you can’t fully gauge a player’s impact until they’re on the court, running plays, and syncing with teammates. For the Warriors to be competitive this season, Hield, Melton, and Anderson will need to prove that Mike Dunleavy Jr. made the right choices and successfully identified players who mesh well with Golden State’s system.
Good health and good luck
The reality is that every championship team benefits from a bit of luck. They have their star players available when it matters most, and they tend to get favorable breaks more often than not. While it’s not an excuse for losses, luck plays a significant role in victories.
Like the other 29 teams, the Warriors will need their share of luck to make this season a successful one.
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